2025 NWSL Playoff Quarterfinals Preview & Predictions Driven By Data

Data by PIRlo (Jonathan Kiersky & Jon Varela, The Captains Agency)

PIRlo NWSL Data 

Powered by The Captains Agency, PIRlo is a proprietary data-driven evaluation system that rates and showcases players using real performance data to assess, develop, and promote athletes at every level. To learn more about our partnership, read our profile on the Captains Agency.

PIRlo’s xStandings (Expected Standings) takes into account all outfield players (no GKs) with 700+ NWSL minutes played. xStandings looks at individual player performances over the season to come up with a rating for the full team.

Orlando Pride (#4 seed) vs. Seattle Reign (#5 seed)

The 2025 NWSL playoffs open with defending champions Orlando Pride (11-7-8) hosting the resurgent Seattle Reign (10-9-7).

Seattle, led by Laura Harvey, Jess Fishlock, and Lauren Barnes, have rebounded impressively from last year’s 13th-place finish. Their disciplined back five has kept seven clean sheets, anchored by Jordan Bugg and Barnes, both top-rated in PIRlo’s player index. The Reign like to play through their center backs, using their range and aerial presence to ignite attacks.

While Seattle holds the historical edge, they haven’t beaten Orlando since September 2023.

Orlando enters without star striker Barbra Banda (8 goals, 1 assist), out with a hip injury, but an in-form Marta continues to lead a deep, balanced side featuring eight players in PIRlo’s NWSL top 100. Expect Seb Hines’ team to dictate tempo and attack through its aggressive fullbacks and wide play.

The two sides drew 1-1 last week in Orlando, a preview of how evenly matched this tie could be. PIRlo’s model gives the edge to Orlando, though Seattle could flip the script if their center backs deliver a flawless two-way performance.

A defending champion versus a team chasing its first championship title — a perfect curtain-raiser for the 2025 playoffs.

Washington Spirit (#2 seed) vs. Racing Louisville (#7 seed)

The second quarterfinal brings together two teams at different stages of their journey. The Washington Spirit (12-8-6) — 2025 Challenge Cup champions and one of the league’s most consistent sides — host a Racing Louisville (10-7-9) team making its first-ever playoff appearance.

Adrien Gonzalez’s Spirit hold the historical edge (6-5-1), with Louisville’s lone win coming back in 2021.

Bev Yanez’s Racing side clinched their postseason spot with a 1–0 win over Bay FC and haven’t lost since mid-September. Their attack is versatile: Emma Sears (10 goals) brings pace, Taylor Flint adds an aerial threat, and Savannah DeMelo pulls the strings in midfield. If that trio clicks, Louisville can make things interesting.

Still, their discipline remains a concern — 11.8 fouls per match and a joint-high six penalties conceded–could prove costly alongside first-time playoff nerves against a sharp Spirit side that thrives under pressure, even without many of its veteran leaders.

Washington remains shorthanded, most notably without Trinity Rodman (knee), but their midfield duo Leicy Santos and Croix Bethune continue to drive one of the league’s most fluid attacks. PIRlo’s xStandings rank Washington 2nd and Louisville 12th, with the model favoring the Spirit’s depth and top-end talent.

Prediction: PIRlo favors Washington, but Louisville’s momentum and creativity give them a chance if they can handle the moment.

Kansas City Current (#1 seed) vs. Gotham FC (#8 seed)

The third quarterfinal pits the Kansas City Current (19-2-4) — this season’s Shield winners and title favorites — against the 2023 champions NJ/NY Gotham FC (9-8-8), who have never beaten this KC team.

Kansas City swept both meetings this year, including a 2–0 win in mid-October. Gotham enter the tie winless in their last four..

KC’s dominance has been historic: a record 65 points, 16 clean sheets, and Golden Boot winner Temwa Chawinga (15 goals, 3 assists) leading a dynamic attack with Debinha (8 goals), and Bia Zaneratto (7 goals, 3 assists). Even with Chawinga day-to-day (hip), Vlatko Andonovski’s side remains the league’s most balanced unit.

For Juan Carlos Amorós’ Gotham, the challenge begins in defense. Lilly Reale anchors a back line that will face its toughest test yet against KC’s relentless front. In attack, Esther González (if fit), Jaedyn Shaw, and an in-form Rose Lavelle must find ways to disrupt KC’s rhythm.

PIRlo’s xStandings favor Kansas City (4th) over Gotham (8th). Unless Gotham forces chaos or penalties, expect the Current to keep their title charge rolling.

Portland Thorns (#3 seed) vs. San Diego Wave (#6 seed)

If there’s one quarterfinal to circle, it’s this one. The Portland Thorns (13-9-6) and San Diego Wave (12-9-7) meet in a matchup that feels less like the first round of the playoffs and more like a final. Two of the league’s most star-studded, attack-minded teams. Two coaches who want to control tempo. Two fanbases that live for victory.

The history is razor-thin — Portland leads the all-time series (5-4-4), and both meetings this season ended in draws. It’s been that close all year.

Portland enters the postseason bruised but unbowed. Even without star striker Sophia Wilson, Morgan Weaver, and others sidelined long-term, Rob Gale’s team finished third in the standings. Olivia Moultrie (8 goals, 1 assist) has become their pulse — equal parts poise and audacity — while Sam Coffey and Jessie Fleming steady the midfield and Reyna Reyes locks down the left side of the defense. Reilyn Turner adds an additional spark in front of goal, giving Rob Gale’s side the confidence that they can punch well above their absence sheet.

On the other sideline, Jonas Eidevall’s Wave come armed with what might be the league’s most frightening right flank. Cascarino, PIRlo’s #1-rated player for the 2025 NWSL season, headlines a trio with Dali (#2) and Armstrong (#3) that can flip a match in seconds. Add Lundkvist overlapping behind Cascarino and you get a turbo-charged wing that can shred any defense in transition.

According to PIRlo’s xStandings, San Diego rank #1 in the league to Portland’s #6, but numbers barely capture the tension here. When Cascarino and Reyes line up opposite each other, it’s elite vs. elite — the duel everyone will be watching.

Why Portland Wins: Moultrie magic. She’s PIRlo’s #6-ranked player in the NWSL this season, and when she clicks with Coffey, Reyes, and defender Jayden Perry, the Thorns’ three-level chemistry can smother anyone.Why San Diego Wins: They’re built to overwhelm. No team matches their blend of pace, precision, and pressure.

Prediction: PIRlo favors the Wave, but this feels like overtime written all over it. Expect end-to-end drama, goals from both sides, and at least one “remember-where-you-were” moment.

This is GSN’s pick for Game of the Round — a clash of MVPs, wonderkinds, and heavyweights with everything on the line.

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