By OkayGoal
Italy
05 Oct 2026
19:45
Türkiye
Two sides licking their wounds after opening-day defeats meet on 5 October 2026 in a UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 fixture that already carries the weight of a must-not-lose occasion. Italy, under Roberto Mancini’s renewed stewardship, fell to Belgium, while Türkiye were edged out by France. Both sit bottom of the group on zero points, and a second consecutive loss here would leave the vanquished staring down the barrel of relegation playoffs before the campaign has truly found its rhythm.
1X: Double Chance Italy or Draw
Match Analysis
Italy enter as clear favorites at 1.44, backed by an unblemished all-time H2H record of 9 wins and 4 draws across 13 meetings. Even in a rotation-heavy lineup, the Azzurri’s attacking output and home advantage keep them firmly in control.
- 9 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses in 13 all-time meetings: Türkiye have never beaten Italy.
- 2.5 goals scored per competitive match over Italy’s last 10 outings signals consistent attacking threat.
- Türkiye have conceded first in each of their last 5 matches, exposing a chronic defensive fragility.
- Türkiye missing 4 key players simultaneously: Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, Kökçü, and suspended Çakır.
Türkiye arrive at 6.50 facing a daunting historical curse and a severely depleted squad. Montella’s side, stripped of their most creative and experienced players, must overturn 13 meetings without a single victory against the Azzurri.
- Absent Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, and Kökçü eliminate Türkiye’s primary creative and technical quality.
- Türkiye lost their opener 0-1 to France and sit on zero points, compounding pressure.
- No win in 13 attempts against Italy reflects a deep-rooted structural disadvantage for Türkiye.
Key point: With both squads heavily rotated and depleted, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.63 offers a compelling alternative angle to the outright result.
Form & Statistics: Italy vs Türkiye
Italy
Recent form
WW
Wins2/2 (100%)
Draws0/2 (0%)
Losses0/2 (0%)
Season statistics (2)
0Total goals
0%Both teams score
0Goals scored
0Goals conceded
Türkiye
Recent form
WLLWW
Wins3/5 (60%)
Draws0/5 (0%)
Losses2/5 (40%)
Season statistics (5)
0Total goals
0%Both teams score
0Goals scored
0Goals conceded
Our Verdict
The double chance 1X represents the standout selection here. Italy’s home price at 1.44 underlines their status as favourites, and the historical record is emphatic: nine wins and four draws across thirteen meetings, with Türkiye never once tasting victory against the Azzurri. Both sides lost their openers, yet Italy’s squad depth, even without Barella, gives them the edge. Montella’s injury concerns further tilt the balance. Backing Italy to win or draw covers the likeliest outcomes at a price that offers genuine value. Questo articolo è a scopo informativo e non costituisce una raccomandazione di gioco.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Italy vs Türkiye?
The double chance covering Italy or a draw represents the most compelling wager here. Italy’s all-time dominance over Türkiye, combined with Türkiye’s defensive frailties and the absence of key creative players such as Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, makes an away win the least likely outcome. Back the home side or the draw at 1.44 with confidence rated at 58%.
What time does Italy vs Türkiye kick off?
This UEFA Nations League League A fixture kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Monday, 5th October 2026. The match is scheduled to be played in Italy, with the precise venue to be confirmed by the Italian Football Federation. Supporters travelling from abroad should account for local kickoff time differences when planning their journey.
Where can I watch Italy vs Türkiye on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for UEFA Nations League fixtures vary by territory. In the United Kingdom, coverage is typically shared between Channel 4 and Sky Sports, whilst Italian viewers can expect RAI to carry the match. Turkish audiences should look to TRT for coverage. We recommend checking your local listings to confirm scheduling and any streaming alternatives.
What is Italy’s recent record against Türkiye?
Italy’s record against Türkiye is nothing short of remarkable. Across 13 previous meetings, the Azzurri have claimed nine victories and four draws, with Türkiye yet to register a single win. That historical pattern, spanning decades of competitive and friendly fixtures, weighs heavily in Italy’s favour and underlines why an away victory at 6.50 remains a distant prospect.