By OkayGoal
During a soccer match, all 22 players continuously make split-second decisions. To an unknowing eye, it might seem like all these decisions are based on mere instincts. And while that might be true for Sunday League soccer, professional players base their split-second decisions on a whole lot of math.
Yes, math!
They calculate all potential outcomes and make their decisions based on variables such as the space they have, the current result, the remaining time, their teammates’ positioning, and potential downsides if they make the wrong decision.
When we say math, we don’t mean the players crunch a ton of numbers every time they get the ball. Instead, they do their best to account for all the variables and make the best possible decision based on the information they have.
This takes plenty of training and experience to master. There’s no magical calculator that helps them play the right ball every single time… This makes soccer different from, let’s say, poker. In poker, a simple poker equity calculator will greatly aid your decision-making, while such support simply doesn’t exist in soccer.
But what kind of decisions do players make game in and game out? Well, here’s the deal:
Tackle or Contain?
The defender’s biggest problem is to try and win the ball with a risky tackle, or to contain the player in space and wait for backup to arrive?
By tackling, you could put an end to the attack at once and perhaps even get a counter going. The downside: if you miss the tackle, you’re out of the equation, and the opposition could be in with a goal scoring chance.
The variables that affect these decisions are as follows:
- The part of the pitch you’re in
- The distance from your goal
- The attacker’s speed
- Your defenders’ positioning
For example, tackling near the sideline carries a lot lesser risk than tackling near the 16-yard-box. Other variables that come into play include the remaining time before the final whistle and the current score.
Shoot or Pass?
This is the most common decision attackers have to make in the opposition’s final third. The key variables here are the angle, distance, goalkeeper’s positioning and the number of defenders still in the equation.
If you have several open options, passing could be a far better choice. It could also open up space for a quick 1-2 pass and lead to a promising goal-scoring opportunity. But, at the same time, every additional touch you or your teammates make gives the defense more time to react and prepare for the potential shot.
Game state is of crucial importance here. You see, a risky shot could pave the way for a counter-attack in the dying minutes of the game. That’s why you should always base your decision by accounting for all the potential outcomes, both positive and negative, instead of just judging it by the probabilities of the ball ending in the net.
Early Cross or 1-on-1 Breakthrough?
If you’re on the ball and near the sideline, you have a seemingly simple decision to make: either cross it early or go 1-on-1 with the defender for a chance to come closer to the goal or potentially even penetrate through the 16-yard-box.
The biggest variables here include the quality of your first touch, your balance after the first touch, the number of your colleagues in the penalty box, and the overlapping potential with your defender.
There’s also an extra variable in the form of your own quality to beat defenders in a one-on-one situation. If you have it, chances are that’s the route you’re going to take. If not, then crossing or overlapping seem like far superior (read safer) choices.
Aggressive Pressing or Space Protection?
Pressing is far more than simple running towards the player with the ball. Good pressing depends on the coordination of the entire backline or even the entire team.
Here are the most common triggers teams use for pressing:
- Bad touch
- Back passes
- Player facing his own goal
- Ball near the sideline
If just one player presses the ball, the opposing team won’t have many issues. That’s where space protection comes into play. It’s oftentimes the much safer choice because it makes the opposition circle the ball around the perimeter, with no clear way to penetrate the defence.
Of course, many variables affect the decision here, such as the remaining time, current score, players’ fatigue, and the quality of the opposition’s playmakers.
Goalkeeper’s Decision-Making Under Pressure
Just like all outfield players, the goalkeepers have to make split-second decisions too, with even less room for mistakes.
- Stay on the line or run out
- Catch the cross or box it out
- Play it short or cross it long
- Attack the ball or wait for a shot
These are just some of the decisions goalkeepers need to make every single match. The prediction depends on numerous things, ranging from the ball’s speed, attacking angle, the crowdedness of the 16-yard box, and the defenders’ positions.
Goalkeepers’ mistakes are far more visible than the mistakes of outfield players simply because almost every time a goalie makes a mistake, it usually ends up with a direct goal-scoring opportunity.
Risk and Reward 101
If we connect all the aforementioned situations into one big scenario, we’ll notice it all comes down to risk and reward.
It’s on the player to predict the probability of success, the potential benefit they’d get with that action, and the potential downside they’d get if they make the wrong decision.
Another thing to understand is that not every action has the same value across the whole pitch. If you make the wrong passing decision in the final third, it’s not nearly as dangerous as making it in your own third, with the opposition in a heavy pressing system.
Additionally, other major factors include the result as well as the remaining time before the final whistle.
Long story short, the safest option is not always the best option. The problem is, the more you play, the better you’ll become at making these decisions. With time, your analyses will be faster and more sophisticated.
If there’s one key takeaway here, it’s that the subtle math helps you understand each situation slightly better, but it will never completely take out the uncertainty.
Final Thoughts
Instinct takes a while to develop. It is the direct product of years of experience, pattern recognition, and risk assessment. No player has access to perfect and timely information. There’s never time for a precise calculation of everything that can go wrong… and everything that can go right.
It’s on you to make the final decision on your own. The thing is, even if you make the correct decision, which increases your odds of success, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll get a positive outcome.
That’s why both players and the coaching staff should look at the grand scheme of things AKA the context, instead of blindly focusing on the final outcome.
One thing is certain: you’ll watch and experience the next match differently after reading this. You’ll monitor every single tackle, shot, and pass as a small variable with many different potential outcomes.