World Cup 2026 group stage predictions and title odds

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway in North America with 48 teams across 12 groups. The top two from each group advance automatically to the round of 32, with the best eight third-placed teams also progressing. Below is a full breakdown of every group, the title contenders and the latest tournament win odds.

For individual team previews covering squads, tactics and key players, see our full breakdowns for Spain, Portugal, Brazil and Norway.

World Cup 2026 group stage predictions

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa

Mexico are the clear group favourites as co-hosts with enormous crowd support behind them. South Korea are the technical favourites to finish second, with their quality in midfield and the experience of Son Heung-Min giving them a clear edge over the Czech Republic. The Czechs are the most credible best third-place candidate in the group, while South Africa are expected to finish bottom with just a 12% chance of advancing.

Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar

Switzerland are the group favourites with Canada expected to take second place on home soil, where the crowd advantage will be a significant factor throughout. Bosnia are the third-place contender to watch, while Qatar are given just a 14% chance of advancing and are expected to exit at the bottom.

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti

Brazil are the most statistically certain team in the entire tournament at 97% to advance. Morocco are the strong second-place favourites with their elite defensive organisation and Hakimi giving them more than enough quality to see off Scotland and Haiti. Scotland have a 22% chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. Haiti at 6% are the heaviest outsiders in the group.

Group D: United States, Paraguay, Türkiye, Australia

The United States lead the group on home soil. Paraguay are the predicted second-place finishers, though Türkiye at 45% represent a genuine banana skin and the most credible third-place candidate. Australia and Türkiye are in a competitive battle for the third spot, with both carrying enough quality to progress.

Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao

Germany are given a 97% probability of advancing and are projected to have the highest group stage goal tally of any team in the tournament at eight or more. Ecuador are the predicted second-place finishers, edging out Ivory Coast who are a genuine third-place contender at 58%. Curaçao are the heaviest outsiders in this group at just 5%.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

Netherlands are the clear group favourites at 86%. Japan at 58% are the predicted second-place finishers, a team that stunned both Germany and Spain at Qatar 2022 and carry genuine counter-attacking quality. Sweden at 44% are a dark horse third-place candidate, while Tunisia at 12% are the most likely group stage exit.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Belgium are dominant in Group G at 90%, with De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku providing one of the most experienced attacking units in the competition. Egypt at 72% are backed strongly for second place, with Salah and Marmoush giving them genuine forward firepower. Iran are a modest third-place contender at 25%, while New Zealand at 13% are expected to finish bottom.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde

Spain have the highest group win probability of any team in the tournament at 98%. Uruguay at 88% are the strong second-place favourites, with Valverde and Bielsa’s pressing system giving them more than enough quality to finish above Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Both Saudi Arabia at 30% and Cape Verde at 22% are modest third-place candidates, making this group competitive below the top two.

Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq

Group I is arguably the toughest group in the tournament. France at 97% are expected to win it comfortably, but the battle for second between Senegal and Norway is one of the most fascinating contests of the group stage. Senegal at 65% are the predicted second-place finishers, but Norway at 55% have a genuine chance of either claiming second or advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. Iraq at 12% are the weakest side in the group. The potential Haaland versus Mbappe showdown in the final group game is the single most anticipated match of the first round.

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

Argentina are defending champions and given a 97% probability of advancing as group winners. Algeria at 70% are the predicted second-place finishers, a team that beat Argentina during CONMEBOL qualifying and should not be taken lightly. Austria at 48% are a competitive third-place candidate under Rangnick. Jordan at 16% are expected to finish bottom.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan

Portugal are strong favourites to win Group K at 94%. Colombia at 80% are the predicted second-place finishers and one of the most dangerous second-tier sides in the tournament, having beaten Argentina during CONMEBOL qualifying. DR Congo at 20% are a modest third-place candidate. Uzbekistan at 16% are tournament debutants expected to struggle and finish bottom.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

England have a 94% probability of advancing from Group L and are considered to have the most favourable draw of any of the major tournament favourites. Croatia at 80% are the comfortable predicted second-place finishers. Ghana at 24% are a credible third-place candidate, while Panama at 14% are expected to exit at the bottom.

World Cup 2026 title contenders

The tournament features four distinct tiers of contenders from the outright favourites to the outsiders carrying genuine upset potential. Spain lead the betting at +450, co-favourites with France at +500, while England at +650 round out the top tier. Here is the full breakdown.

Tier 1: Top favourites

Spain (Group H, +450) are the reigning Euro 2024 champions and the most complete team in this tournament. Elite midfield control through Rodri and Pedri, generational attacking talent in 17-year-old Lamine Yamal and the deepest squad from one to eleven. The only concern is Yamal’s hamstring injury going into the tournament, which could see him miss the opening group games. Implied win probability: 16.5%.

France (Group I, +500) are the 2018 World Cup winners and 2022 runners-up. They are equally dangerous, with Mbappe in top form, Kante back anchoring midfield and two consecutive World Cup final appearances making them the most consistent major force in the tournament. Key players: Mbappe, Kante, Maignan, Tchouameni. Implied win probability: 15.8%.

England (Group L, +650) have 60 years of hurt driving genuine ambition. Thomas Tuchel has brought structure and tactical flexibility to England’s golden generation and they have the most favourable draw of the major tournament favourites in Group L. Kane, Bellingham and Saka in the same team is a formidable combination. Implied win probability: 11.2%.

Tier 2: Strong contenders

Portugal (Group K, +800) arrives in North America with the most complete squad they have assembled in years. This is almost certainly Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup and the supporting cast has never been stronger. Departing Manchester City ace Bernardo Silva is the best player many forget to mention in any discussion about this squad, and a kind draw in Group K gives them a smooth path to the knockout rounds. Implied win probability: 10.1%.

Brazil (Group C, +850) have the second-highest projected goal tally across the group stage at 7.4. Carlo Ancelotti brings winning pedigree and tactical calmness to a squad playing free-flowing, attack-minded football again. Vinicius Junior will be a Golden Boot contender. Their last World Cup title was 2002 and the hunger to change that is real. Implied win probability: 9.8%.

Argentina (Group J, +1000) are defending champions led by a 39-year-old Messi. They project a 97% group stage qualification rate and are capable of back-to-back titles if Messi is fit and firing. He missed a prep game with muscle fatigue and that fitness question is the key variable heading into the tournament. Implied win probability: 8.8%.

Germany (Group E, +1300) have the highest group stage goal projection of any team in the tournament at eight or more. Wirtz and Musiala are arguably the best young midfield pair in world football. Germany have rebuilt convincingly since their 2022 group stage exit and Nagelsmann’s system is clear and settled. Never write off Germany at a World Cup. Implied win probability: 6.3%.

Tier 3: Dark horses

Netherlands (Group F, +1600) are a quietly formidable squad. Van Dijk, Gakpo and Reijnders form a strong core and the Dutch project 5.5 or more group stage goals. If they find the right attacking combination in the knockout rounds, a semifinal run is very achievable. Implied win probability: 5.1%.

Belgium (Group G, +2200) represent a second golden generation with De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku all still capable at the highest level. Belgium project the third highest group stage goal tally at 6.3 and have a very manageable group. De Bruyne may be in his final World Cup and will be motivated to leave his mark on it. A quarterfinal is the minimum expectation. Implied win probability: 3.9%.

Norway (Group I, +3300) make their first World Cup appearance in 28 years with Erling Haaland leading the attack after scoring 16 goals in qualifying. Ødegaard as the creative spine alongside Haaland is a terrifying attacking combination. The Haaland factor alone gives Norway genuine upset potential even in the toughest group in the tournament. Implied win probability: 3.5%.

Colombia (Group K, +3500) beat Argentina in CONMEBOL qualifying and finished above both Brazil and Uruguay in the standings. Luis Díaz is one of the most dangerous wide attackers in the world. A leaky defence is the only real concern for a team that could be South America’s surprise package of the tournament. Implied win probability: 2.8%.

Tier 4: Outsiders with potential

Uruguay (Group H, +2500) bring Bielsa’s intense pressing game alongside elite talent in Valverde and Nunez. They can upset anyone on their day. The danger is their Group H draw alongside Spain, which means they will likely face a top seed very early in the knockout rounds. Implied win probability: 2.5%.

Japan (Group F, +4000) stunned Germany and Spain at Qatar 2022 and carry genuine counter-attacking quality through Mitoma, Kubo and Doan. If they find their rhythm, no opponent is safe. Implied win probability: 2.2%.

Morocco (Group C, +5000) made the semi-finals at Qatar 2022 and that run was no fluke. Hakimi is one of the best right-backs on the planet, their defensive organisation is elite and Ziyech and El Khannouss provide the creative quality to unlock opponents in the knockouts. Implied win probability: 1.8%.

Mexico (Group A, +6500) carry massive home crowd support and Santiago Giménez is one of the most in-form strikers in Europe right now. They are the clear Group A favourites and a home-crowd-fuelled deep run is not out of the question. Implied win probability: 1.4%.

World Cup 2026 odds at a glance

Odds via FanDuel and DraftKings as of June 10, 2026.