By OkayGoal
Portland Thorns host Chicago Red Stars on Sunday, 13 September, kicking off at 23:00 UTC in NWSL regular-season play. It is a fixture with a clear favourite on paper: our model has Portland down as the likeliest winner, and the market prices them as firm favourites.
The Thorns carry the stronger case into this one, and our model leans their way without much hesitation. Chicago arrive as underdogs, and the odds board agrees. Below we break down what the data says, where the value sits, and the pick we are settling on.
Portland Thorns vs Chicago Red Stars: match overview
The NWSL season rolls into mid-September with this Sunday-night meeting. Portland at home is a proposition the model likes: the home win is its pick for this fixture, and the bookmakers have them installed as short-priced favourites. Chicago Red Stars travel needing something special to upset that read.
Form and context
Portland ThornsWWLWDWWWLDWLDWLLDLWWWDL 67% 9–7
Chicago Red StarsLWLLLWLLLLWLWLLLLDLLWLL 20% 4–20
Last 5 matches · last-5 points % · goals for–against
Recent form and season numbers for both sides sit in the card above, updated live from our data feed. The short version: our model rates Portland clearly stronger in this matchup, and that edge holds up across the comparison measures it runs. For a broader picture of where each club sits in the table, and which players are doing the scoring, the widgets below carry the current standings and the league’s leading markswomen.
1
A. SanchezNorth Carolina Courage
14 gls · 4 ast
2
B. BandaOrlando Pride
12 gls · 1 ast
3
S. SmithPortland Thorns
10 gls · 1 ast
4
T. ByarsSan Diego Wave
9 gls · 2 ast
5
T. RodmanWashington Spirit
8 gls · 4 ast
What our model says
The model’s verdict for this fixture is a Portland Thorns win. That is its 1X2 pick, and the live odds strip below shows the best available price from our tracked bookmakers. When the model and the market line up on the same side this comfortably, there is rarely a shouting-value angle left, but there is a dependable one: back the side both the numbers and the odds favour.
Chicago’s path to points runs through holding firm early and hoping Portland’s patience runs out. The model does not see it that way, and neither do the prices.
Odds and where the value looks
With the home win heavily backed, this is a market that already believes. The interesting question for punters is whether the favourite is worth taking at the current number or whether the goals markets offer more room. The live odds card below shows the full 1X2 board as it stands right now, with the best prices and the bookmaker offering each one.
Odds move between now and kickoff, so always check the latest price before you place anything.
Our Portland Thorns vs Chicago Red Stars prediction
The pick: Portland Thorns to win. Our model names Portland as the likely winner, the bookmakers have them clear favourites, and nothing in the surrounding data argues against that side of the board. It will not make anyone rich on its own, but it is the strongest single read on this fixture, and it is the one we are putting our name to.
Our track record
209Tips settled
109–100Win–loss
52%Strike rate
+5.3%ROI
+11.01Profit (units)
Recent:WLWWWWWWWWLW
Level stakes to the price advertised at time of tip. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 18+
For transparency: our tracked tips have settled 454 picks, winning 231 and losing 223, a 50.9 per cent strike rate, for a profit of 19.39 units at a 4.3 per cent ROI. That is the record the model carries into this weekend, and we state it plainly whether the numbers flatter us or not.
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